March 21, 2014
Some daily signals are bearish, some bullish. The Smoothed Rate of Change study has held a bearish orientation since March 6th. The study would have turned bullish today except shares sold off. The study will stay bearish on Monday if shares are weak again. This study is pretty good about recognizing turns, so it is interesting that it has been bearish so many days in a row while price has marched in place.
March 20, 2014
Synthetic volatility turned bullish on 17 March. The actual volatility study turned bullish on 18 March and then shifted back to the bearish side on 19 March. The various signals I watch are currently almost evenly split between bullish and bearish, suggesting this is a good market in which to do nothing.
March 19, 2014
The Russell 2000 cumulative Advance/Decline study turned bullish on 17 March, but started looking toppy today.
March 18, 2014
A variety of daily signals turned bullish today and some yesterday. The volatility study was one that made its shift today.
March 17, 2014
Stocks gapped up on Monday, but the daily signal from volatility remained bearish. I closed speculative bearish positions at a loss in the morning.
Financial markets are predictable because segments of price action fit together in a limited number of patterns that are not random. Markets are unpredictable too because there is enough variability in the patterns to hide the trend at some stages of development. I am fascinated by the market and spend a lot of time working to identify price trends so I can exploit them for profit.