Markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but Russell 2000 futures are trading. The directional movement study (DMI) is bullish and rising. The average directional index (ADX) reveals that trend strength has edged up since the DMI turned bullish on 15 January.
The volatility spread study remains bullish, but the cumulative advance/decline study turned bearish today. Of 12 studies that I consulted today, 7 were bullish and 5 bearish. Most of the bearish signals are only a day or two old.
The Russell 2000 rose higher today. The volatility spread has been bullish since 9 January and remains bullish today. The toppy look of the study is not a signal, just a caution flag. The MACD study turned bullish today.
I closed my short position, but could not bear to go long the Russell 2000 today. I added bullish positions in a variety of individual shares, but not the broad market.
The volatility spread accurately forecast today’s new high when it turned bullish on 9 January. The cumulative advance/decline study came to the party later, but gave a day’s warning that stocks would rise.
The volatility spread study turned bearish on 31 December and stayed bearish the first three trading days of January. I have remained bearish against the 31 December peak of 115.71. The volatility spread is currently signaling higher prices, but has flickered a lot. Three other studies that I watch are bearish on the daily charts – MACD, the small cap/large cap spread, and the stock/bond spread.