Trend Guidance increasingly bearish

Posted by Dr. Prognosis on Jan 2nd, 2014 in Market Direction | 0 comments

Three of seven trend guidance systems I am watching are now bearish. The volatility spread turned bearish on 31 December, while synthetic volatility and the RSI trend indicator turned bearish on 2 January. One or two continue to look bullish, while several more (like the moving average crossover system) look as if they could turn bearish if recent weakness continues.

Volatility Spread Guidance

Posted by Dr. Prognosis on Dec 31st, 2013 in Market Direction | 0 comments

The Volatility Spread generated a bearish signal on Tuesday, 31 December 2013 on the daily chart. This is the first bearish signal from the indicators I am currently watching. This means that things may be interesting on Thursday when the market is next open.

Synthetic Volatility Guidance

Posted by Dr. Prognosis on Dec 30th, 2013 in Market Direction | 0 comments

VIX Term Spreads offer better overall guidance than synthetic volatility. Synthetic volatility tends to be more volatile, leading to more frequent trading and whipsaws. That said, the daily and weekly trends are up. You might consider entering bearish positions when the spread crosses below its moving average.

Volatility Spread Guidance

Posted by Dr. Prognosis on Dec 27th, 2013 in Market Direction | 0 comments

The daily and weekly trends are up. Enter bearish positions when the spread crosses below its moving average.

Moving Average Guidance

Posted by Dr. Prognosis on Dec 26th, 2013 in Market Direction | 0 comments

The daily and weekly trends are up. Wait for a moving average cross over to enter bearish positions.

Prime Rate Indicator Buy and Sell Signals

Posted by Dr. Prognosis on Jun 14th, 2009 in Market Timing, Prime Rate Indicator | 0 comments

Martin Zweig proposed the following rules for stock market buy and sell signals based upon the level and direction of interest rates in Winning on Wall Street.

Buy Signal: Any initial cut in the Prime Rate if the peak was less than 8 percent. Or, if the peak is 8 percent or greater, a buy signal comes on either the second of two cuts or a full 1 percent cut in the rate.

Sell Signal: Any initial hike in the Prime Rate if the low was 8 percent or greater. Or, if the low is less than 8 percent, a sell signal comes on either the second of two hikes or on a full 1 percent increase in the rate.

The table below documents the levels of the Prime Rate and the dates when the Prime Rate Indicator developed Buy or Sell Signals since 1947. Click here to read how The Prime Rate Indicator may have passed its prime.

Signal	Date of Change	Prime Rate (%)

	12/16/2008	3.25
	10/29/2008	4
	10/8/2008	4.5
	4/30/2008	5
	3/18/2008	5.25
	1/30/2008	6
	1/22/2008	6.5
	12/11/2007	7.25
	10/31/2007	7.5
Buy	9/18/2007	7.75
	6/29/2006	8.25
	5/10/2006	8
	3/28/2006	7.75
	1/31/2006	7.5
	12/13/2005	7.25
	11/1/2005	7
	9/21/2005	6.75
	8/9/2005	6.5
	6/30/2005	6.25
	5/3/2005	6
	3/22/2005	5.75
	2/2/2005	5.5
	12/14/2004	5.25
	11/10/2004	5
	9/22/2004	4.75
Sell	8/11/2004	4.5
	7/1/2004	4.25
	6/27/2003	4
	11/7/2002	4.25
	12/12/2001	4.75
	11/7/2001	5
	10/3/2001	5.5
	9/18/2001	6
	8/22/2001	6.5
	6/28/2001	6.75
	5/16/2001	7
	4/19/2001	7.5
	3/21/2001	8
Buy	2/1/2001	8.5
	1/4/2001	9
	5/17/2000	9.5
	3/22/2000	9
	2/3/2000	8.75
	11/17/1999	8.5
Sell	8/25/1999	8.25
	7/1/1999	8
	11/18/1998	7.75
Buy	10/16/1998	8
	9/30/1998	8.25
Sell	3/27/1997	8.5
	1/31/1996	8.25
Buy	12/20/1995	8.5
	7/7/1995	8.75
	2/1/1995	9
	11/15/1994	8.5
	8/16/1994	7.75
	5/18/1994	7.25
Sell	4/19/1994	6.75
	3/24/1994	6.25
	7/2/1992	6
	12/23/1991	6.5
	11/6/1991	7.5
	9/13/1991	8
	5/1/1991	8.5
	2/4/1991	9
	1/2/1991	9.5
	1/8/1990	10
Buy	7/31/1989	10.5
	6/5/1989	11
	2/24/1989	11.5
	2/10/1989	11
	11/28/1988	10.5
	8/11/1988	10
	7/14/1988	9.5
Sell	5/11/1988	9
	2/2/1988	8.5
Buy	11/5/1987	8.75
	10/22/1987	9
	10/7/1987	9.25
	9/4/1987	8.75
	5/15/1987	8.25
Sell	5/1/1987	8
	4/1/1987	7.75
	8/26/1986	7.5
	7/11/1986	8
	4/21/1986	8.5
	3/7/1986	9
	6/18/1985	9.5
	5/20/1985	10
	1/15/1985	10.5
	12/19/1984	10.75
	11/28/1984	11.25
	11/8/1984	11.75
	10/24/1984	12
Buy	10/16/1984	12.5
	9/27/1984	12.75
	6/26/1984	13
	5/8/1984	12.5
	4/5/1984	12
	3/19/1984	11.5
Sell	8/8/1983	11
	2/21/1983	10.5
	1/11/1983	11
	11/22/1982	11.5
	10/13/1982	12
	10/7/1982	13
	9/3/1982	13.5
	8/18/1982	14
	8/16/1982	14.5
	8/2/1982	15
	7/29/1982	15.5
Buy	7/20/1982	16
	2/23/1982	16.5
	2/18/1982	17
Sell	2/8/1982	16.5
	12/3/1981	15.75
	11/24/1981	16
	11/16/1981	16.5
	11/9/1981	17
	11/3/1981	17.5
	10/13/1981	18
	10/5/1981	19
Buy	9/15/1981	19.5
	7/8/1981	20.5
	6/3/1981	20
	5/22/1981	20.5
	5/19/1981	20
	5/11/1981	19.5
	5/4/1981	19
	4/30/1981	18
Sell	4/24/1981	17.5
	4/2/1981	17
	3/17/1981	17.5
	3/10/1981	18
	2/23/1981	19
	2/3/1981	19.5
	1/9/1981	20
Buy	1/2/1981	20.5
	12/19/1980	21.5
	12/16/1980	21
	12/10/1980	20
	12/5/1980	19
	12/2/1980	18.5
	11/26/1980	17.75
	11/21/1980	17
	11/17/1980	16.25
	11/6/1980	15.5
	10/29/1980	14.5
	10/17/1980	14
	10/1/1980	13.5
	9/26/1980	13
	9/19/1980	12.5
	9/12/1980	12.25
	9/8/1980	12
	8/27/1980	11.5
Sell	8/22/1980	11.25
	7/25/1980	11
	7/7/1980	11.5
	6/17/1980	12
	6/13/1980	12.5
	6/6/1980	13
	5/30/1980	14
	5/23/1980	14.5
	5/16/1980	16.5
	5/7/1980	17.5
Buy	5/1/1980	18.5
	4/18/1980	19.5
	4/2/1980	20
	3/28/1980	19.5
	3/19/1980	19
	3/14/1980	18.5
	3/7/1980	17.75
	3/4/1980	17.25
	2/29/1980	16.75
	2/22/1980	16.5
	2/19/1980	15.75
	12/7/1979	15.25
	11/30/1979	15.5
	11/16/1979	14.75
	11/9/1979	15.5
	11/1/1979	15.25
	10/23/1979	15
	10/9/1979	14
	9/28/1979	13.5
	9/21/1979	13.25
	9/14/1979	13
	9/7/1979	12.75
	8/28/1979	12.25
	8/16/1979	12
	7/27/1979	11.75
	6/19/1979	11.5
	12/26/1978	11.75
	11/24/1978	11.5
	11/17/1978	11
	11/6/1978	10.75
	11/1/1978	10.5
	10/27/1978	10.25
	10/13/1978	10
	9/28/1978	9.75
	9/15/1978	9.5
	8/31/1978	9.25
	7/30/1978	9
	6/16/1978	8.75
	5/26/1978	8.5
	5/5/1978	8.25
	1/10/1978	8
	10/24/1977	7.75
	10/7/1977	7.5
	9/16/1977	7.25
	8/22/1977	7
Sell	5/31/1977	6.75
	5/13/1977	6.5
	11/24/1976	6.25
	11/1/1976	6.5
	9/24/1976	6.75
Buy	8/3/1976	7
Sell	6/10/1976	7.25
	6/1/1976	7
	1/21/1976	6.75
	1/12/1976	7
	12/2/1975	7.25
	11/7/1975	7.5
Buy	10/28/1975	7.75
	9/12/1975	8
	8/11/1975	7.75
Sell	7/29/1975	7.5
	7/20/1975	7.25
	6/9/1975	7
	5/20/1975	7.25
	3/24/1975	7.5
	3/18/1975	7.75
	3/10/1975	8
	3/5/1975	8.25
	2/24/1975	8.5
	2/18/1975	8.75
	2/10/1975	9
	2/3/1975	9.25
	1/28/1975	9.5
	1/20/1975	9.75
	1/15/1975	10
	1/9/1975	10.25
	11/25/1974	10.25
	11/13/1974	10.75
	11/6/1974	11
Buy	10/22/1974	11.25
	10/8/1974	11.75
	7/8/1974	12
	6/27/1974	11.75
	5/17/1974	11.5
	5/10/1974	11.25
	5/7/1974	11
	5/2/1974	10.75
	4/25/1974	10.5
	4/22/1974	10.25
	4/11/1974	10
	4/8/1974	9.75
	4/4/1974	9.5
	4/1/1974	9.25
Sell	3/22/1974	9
	2/25/1974	8.75
	2/19/1974	9
Buy	2/11/1974	9.25
	1/29/1974	9.5
Sell	12/3/1973	9.75
Buy	10/29/1973	9.5
	10/23/1973	9.75
	9/18/1973	10
	8/28/1973	9.75
	8/21/1973	9.5
	8/13/1973	9.25
	8/6/1973	9
	7/30/1973	8.75
	7/18/1973	8.5
	7/9/1973	8.25
	7/2/1973	8
	6/22/1973	7.75
	6/7/1973	7.5
	5/25/1973	7.25
	5/7/1973	7
	4/19/1973	6.75
	3/26/1973	6.5
	2/27/1973	6.25
	12/27/1972	6
	10/3/1972	5.75
	8/29/1972	5.5
	6/27/1972	5.25
Sell	3/31/1972	5
	3/20/1972	4.75
	2/16/1972	4.5
	1/18/1972	4.75
	1/3/1972	5
	12/17/1971	5.25
	11/8/1971	5.5
Buy	10/20/1971	5.75
Sell	7/7/1971	6
	4/23/1971	5.5
	3/19/1971	5.25
	3/11/1971	5.5
	2/16/1971	5.75
	1/18/1971	6
	1/15/1971	6.25
	1/6/1971	6.5
	12/22/1970	6.75
	11/23/1970	7
	11/12/1970	7.25
Buy	9/21/1970	7.5
	3/25/1970	8
	6/9/1969	8.5
	3/17/1969	7.5
	1/7/1969	7
Sell	12/18/1968	6.75
	12/2/1968	6.5
Buy	9/25/1968	6.25
Sell	4/19/1968	6.5
	11/20/1967	6
	3/27/1967	5.5
Buy	1/26/1967	5.75
	8/16/1966	6
	6/29/1966	5.75
Sell	3/10/1966	5.5
	12/6/1965	5
Buy	8/23/1960	4.5
	9/1/1959	5
Sell	5/18/1959	4.5
	9/11/1958	4
	4/21/1958	3.5
Buy	1/22/1958	4
	8/6/1957	4.5
	8/21/1956	4
	4/13/1956	3.75
Sell	10/14/1955	3.5
	8/4/1955	3.25
Buy	3/17/1954	3
	4/27/1953	3.25
	12/19/1951	3
	10/17/1951	2.75
	1/8/1951	2.5
Sell	9/22/1950	2.25
	8/1/1948	2
	12/1/1947	1.75

See a discussion of the Prime Rate Indicator by clicking here.