March 6, 2014
Twitchy signals either turned bearish or hinted of an imminent turn today, but the discretionary/staples ratio remains confidently bullish. I am not eager to increase bullish bets at this time, but I am not eager to get short either.
March 5, 2014
Most daily signals are bullish after the March 3 interlude. Synthetic volatility is a twitchy signal that is pretty good at recognizing tops early. It is solidly bullish for now.
March 4, 2014
The volatility study reversed its bearish signal after just one day and is now back to being bullish.
March 3, 2014
A variety of daily signals turned bearish today. Trade was essentially sideways after an opening drop and I have not taken a position… yet.
February 28, 2014
Most signals remain bullish, including the cumulative advance/decline study, but the upward trend of the study is wobbling now.
February 27, 2014
Most daily signals remain bullish, but the SPY/TLT (shares/interest rates) ratio edged to a bearish signal on 26 February. The study anticipated the previous peak 12 days in advance. Historically, the ratio has done a better job of confirming declines than anticipating them. Maybe the ratio’s behavior is changing or maybe it is giving us several week’s notice.
Financial markets are predictable because segments of price action fit together in a limited number of patterns that are not random. Markets are unpredictable too because there is enough variability in the patterns to hide the trend at some stages of development. I am fascinated by the market and spend a lot of time working to identify price trends so I can exploit them for profit.